The Evidence

What the research
actually says about
the wrong plan.

Medicare patients in plans mismatched to their clinical situation cost your practice money and cost your patients their health. Here is the economics of how — how a coverage mismatch becomes bad debt, a missed quality measure, or a lost patient — with every figure linked to its original source.

Network exits Bad debt & unpaid balances Quality & reimbursement Medication non-adherence Notes & sources
For practice leadership & operations

When a plan drops your doctors
mid-year, the clock starts.

A plan leaving the market lands on January 1 — everyone gets a notice, and you're already handling it. The harder problem is the mid-year one: a plan drops your practice off-cycle, and those patients are stuck out-of-network until the fall unless someone catches that they qualify to move now. You know who's affected — you're sending the letters. What's hard to see is which of them still has an open window, and which window is already closing.

1

Plans and health systems are separating at scale.

At least 25 health systems have terminated Medicare Advantage contracts in 2026 — and the list is still growing — citing prior-authorization denials and slow reimbursement. And plan exits are displacing enrollees at an unprecedented rate: roughly 1 in 10 Medicare Advantage enrollees — about 2.9 million people — are being forced to change plans in 2026 as insurers leave their counties.

2

The displacement is accelerating — and the mid-year version is the one that strands people.

A peer-reviewed analysis projects forced disenrollment reaching roughly 10% of MA enrollees in 2026, up from about 1% before 2025. A plan exit at least comes with a January notice everyone sees. A mid-year provider termination doesn't: the network changes on the plan's timeline, but the patient's ability to switch is locked to fixed windows unless a Special Enrollment Period applies — which it may, but only if someone recognizes it. State insurance commissioners have formally asked CMS to make that SEP more consistent — regulatory acknowledgment that the timing gap is real and remediable.

3

Without early action, you lose the relationship — and the continuity revenue.

A displaced patient who doesn't move in time becomes an out-of-network encounter, a disrupted care relationship, and often a lost patient. The ones you can save are the ones who qualify to move now under a Special Enrollment Period rather than waiting for the fall — but they're invisible unless someone identifies which patients, on which plans, have a window open today. That identification is the whole game.

"An older beneficiary with diabetes and heart disease who must switch plans may experience fragmented clinician relationships, interrupted specialist care, medication formulary changes and disrupted care coordination that could ultimately lead to worse health outcomes." — RAND Corporation, editorial accompanying the JAMA forced-disenrollment study, 2026

The evidence behind this chain
  • At least 25 health systems terminated MA contracts in 2026 (the count keeps rising), citing prior-authorization and reimbursement disputes. Industry data Source: Becker's Hospital Review, 2026
  • Roughly 1 in 10 MA enrollees (~2.9 million) face forced disenrollment in 2026, up from about 1% annually in 2018–2024 and 6.9% in 2025 — a tenfold rise in two years. Peer-reviewed Source: JAMA / Johns Hopkins, Feb 2026
  • Forced disenrollment is projected to reach ~10% of MA enrollees in 2026, up from ~1% before 2025. Peer-reviewed Source: American Journal of Managed Care, 2026
  • State insurance commissioners have asked CMS for a group Special Enrollment Period covering members who lose the same major provider. Policy Source: KFF Health News, 2026
The bottom line

Whether a displaced patient stays with you or drifts away isn't fixed — it's decided by whether someone reaches them while their window is open. Left to inertia, they default to whatever's easiest, which is often losing you. The list of who's affected already exists in your records; the hard part is knowing which of them can act today. Identify those patients, get them help fast, and you keep the ones a practice that waits until fall would lose.

For practice administrators & CFOs

How a mismatched plan
becomes bad debt you can't collect.

A patient chooses a Medicare Advantage plan whose cost-sharing structure doesn't fit their clinical reality — a high deductible, coinsurance instead of flat copays, a specialist tier that doesn't match how often they actually need to be seen. Nobody checks the fit against the diagnoses and medications already in the record. The gap surfaces months later, as a balance the patient didn't expect and can't pay.

1

The plan's cost-sharing doesn't match the patient's care pattern.

Medicare Advantage cost-sharing on the services your practice provides has grown more complex and more front-loaded — higher deductibles, coinsurance in place of flat copays, and cost-sharing applied to procedures, labs, and imaging done in your office. More of the cost, and more unpredictable cost, lands directly on the patient for care you delivered.

2

The flat copay is knowable. The exposure underneath it often isn't.

For a simple office visit, the copay is on the card. But when the plan uses coinsurance instead of a fixed copay, the patient owes a percentage of an allowed amount nobody knows until the claim adjudicates. Add a deductible the front desk can't see the running balance of, plus in-office procedures, labs, injections, and imaging — and the real number lands well past the visit copay. That exposure is precisely what a mismatched plan loads up, and eligibility verification confirms only that the plan is active, never that it fits.

3

The unpaid balance lands on your books.

This is where it becomes your problem. Benchmarking data attributes the persistent and widening bad-debt gap between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage specifically to payor behavior — the same cost-sharing complexity, slower adjudication, and higher denial rates described above. Some of that gap is structural to the MA product. But the portion driven by patients placed in plans that never fit their situation is addressable — before the first balance is ever written off.

The evidence behind this chain
  • The bad-debt gap between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage is driven by payor behavior — cost-sharing complexity, slower adjudication, higher denials — leaving patients uncertain what they owe. Industry data Source: Kodiak Solutions, June 2026
  • The shift toward unpredictable cost-sharing is broad and worsening: by 2026, about 99% of MA plans required patient cost-sharing for advanced imaging, and the share charging both coinsurance and a copay rose from 40% to 49% over eight years, with maximum coinsurance rates reaching 50%. Peer-reviewed Source: American Journal of Roentgenology, July 2026
The bottom line

Eligibility verification answers "is this plan active." It never asks "is this plan right." The bad debt from that unasked question is the most direct, most universal cost of plan mismatch — and the one every practice with Medicare patients already carries.

For value-based care & quality leaders

How the wrong plan
lowers your quality scores.

As value-based arrangements expand, more of your reimbursement rides on measures — medication adherence, blood glucose control, blood pressure — that a patient simply cannot hit if their plan has placed their prescribed drug on a tier they won't pay for. Plan design and quality performance are not separate conversations. Get the plan wrong and you are working against your own scores.

1

Adherence measures drive the outcome measures you're scored on.

Performance on the medication-adherence measures is tightly linked to performance on the intermediate outcomes those measures exist to capture. Plans achieving 5 stars on the diabetes medication-adherence measure were 3.5 times more likely to achieve 5 stars on the controlling-blood-glucose measure.

2

Lower cost-sharing measurably raises adherence.

This is the causal link, not just a correlation: when cost-sharing came down under expanded Low-Income Subsidy eligibility and Part D redesign, cost-related non-adherence fell by 4.9 percentage points overall — and by 7.8 points among patients with two or more chronic conditions. The right plan makes the prescribed drug affordable, and affordability is what moves the measure.

3

It isn't only the medication measures — and the dollars are large.

The 2027 Star Ratings set includes Special Needs Plan (SNP) Care Management and Care for Older Adults – Medication Review as scored process measures, alongside a 3×-weighted Controlling Blood Pressure measure. Together, the adherence, statin-process, and Part C intermediate measures account for about 21% of the weighted Star Ratings — and higher Star Ratings drive the quality bonus payments and rebates a plan lives on. A patient placed in a plan built for their condition can gain access to scored measures a standard plan never had to deliver.

The evidence behind this chain
  • Plans at 5 stars on diabetes medication adherence were 3.5× more likely to hit 5 stars on controlling blood glucose. Peer-reviewed Source: American Journal of Managed Care, 2026
  • Lower cost-sharing (LIS expansion, Part D redesign) cut cost-related non-adherence by 4.9 points overall, 7.8 points for multi-chronic-condition patients. Peer-reviewed Source: American Journal of Managed Care, 2026
  • Improved adherence in the Medicare population (2020–2021) produced $11.6 billion in cost avoidance for statins alone. Federal assessment Source: CMS 2024 National Impact Assessment Report
  • 2027 Star Ratings include SNP Care Management and Care for Older Adults measures; HEDIS is ~26% of the overall rating. CMS measure set Source: CMS 2027 Star Ratings Measures
The bottom line

You are increasingly paid on whether your patients take their medications and control their conditions. When the plan makes the prescribed drug unaffordable, it is working directly against the number your contract depends on. Correct placement is a quality-measure intervention.

For physicians & clinical teams

How cost turns a good prescription
into a missed dose.

You prescribed the right medication. The wrong plan made it inaccessible. This is the chain that starts as a patient's private financial decision and ends as a clinical event in your exam room — and it is the half of the problem that never shows up on a billing report until it's already expensive.

1

A large share of prescriptions are never filled.

Roughly a quarter of prescriptions written for Medicare patients are never filled — abandoned at the counter or rejected at the payer, frequently because of cost. The patient never starts the therapy you intended.

2

Patients ration silently — and the sickest ration most.

Seniors skip doses and stretch prescriptions specifically to save money, and the sicker and lower-income the patient, the more likely they are to do it. They rarely tell you. It surfaces as a control problem you can't explain from the chart alone.

3

Non-adherence becomes avoidable acute care.

The majority of the cost of non-adherence comes from avoidable hospitalization, with additional cost from disease progression and increased visits to physician offices, emergency rooms, and urgent care. The unfilled prescription becomes the decompensation — and the acute episode is far more expensive, clinically and financially, than the drug ever was.

The evidence behind this chain
  • About 27% of US prescriptions are never filled; ~24% among Medicare patients, due to payer rejection and abandonment. Industry data Source: IQVIA Institute, 2025
  • The affordability barrier is worsening: the average MA drug-plan deductible rose from $62 (2024) to $224 (2025), and the share of plans charging coinsurance rather than a fixed copay for preferred brands jumped from 2.6% to 27.5% — shifting more unpredictable drug cost directly onto patients. Industry data Source: USC Schaeffer Center, 2025
  • Seniors skip or reduce medication to save money; the sickest low-income patients are most likely to do so. Federal survey Source: CDC National Health Interview Survey, 2024
  • The majority of non-adherence cost comes from avoidable hospitalization, plus ED visits and disease progression. Peer-reviewed Source: Adherence and Health Care Costs (NIH/PMC)
  • In a 103,900-patient Medicare Advantage cohort, patients who missed 1, 2–3, or 4+ adherence quality measures incurred 14%, 19%, and 20% higher monthly medical costs respectively — with correspondingly greater hospital and ED use. Peer-reviewed Source: AJMC, 2026
The bottom line

Non-adherence is often not a discipline problem. For a large share of patients it is a formulary problem — and a formulary problem is solvable at the moment of enrollment, before it becomes the admission you're treating.

Figures are national data drawn from the sources linked above; how much applies to your practice depends on your panel, payer mix, and contracts. Our focus is plan fit — matching a patient to coverage suited to their clinical situation — rather than broader questions of Medicare policy or program design. Patient Coverage Connect flags a likely mismatch from information already in the record; a vetted, licensed advisor reviews the options, explains the benefit design, and handles any change with the patient's documented consent. Fast-moving figures — the count of health systems exiting Medicare Advantage and the number of displaced enrollees — are updated as new data is published.

Where this leads

The data needed to catch every one
of these is already in the chart.

Across all four chains, the pattern is the same: the diagnosis, the medication list, the plan identifier, the subsidy status — everything needed to spot the mismatch already exists in the record. The gap has never been information. It's that nothing connects that information to the coverage decision while there's still time to act on it. That connection is what Patient Coverage Connect provides.

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